The US Presidential Election and the US Housing Market

As the November US election nears, real estate companies within the market have been keeping an eye on property data. Usually, home prices flatten out around elections, but this year, like most of aspects of 2020, is showing unpredictable results. 

Redfin ran a survey on the impact the election could have on the real estate market this year. Highlights from this survey include:

• 22% of homebuyers and sellers said the election is impacting their plans to buy or sell a home. (down 32% November year-over-year)
• 13% said the election is making them more hesitant to buy or sell a home (down 20% November year-over-year)
• 9% said the election is making them less hesitant to buy or sell a home (down 12%)
• 65% said the upcoming election isn’t impact their plans at all (up 60%)

Alisha Pruitt, a Redfin agent in Silicon Valley, has predicted that the upcoming presidential election won’t impact real estate activity.

“Almost all the buyers I work with ask how the election could impact their home purchase. I don’t have a crystal ball, but presidential elections have never seemed to affect the housing market much in the six election cycles I’ve been a real estate agent. The pandemic is having a much bigger impact, with low mortgage rates motivating buyers who want more space to work from home.”

Redfin economist Taylor Marr, explained:

“Home sales typically don’t rise or fall much during the months surrounding a presidential election compared with those same months in non-election years, and although the upcoming election is happening at a particularly tumultuous time in our country’s history, I expect the trend to remain the same. While it’s possible this year’s election results may be up in the air for a few weeks and the delay could cause some people to hold off on buying or selling a home, the impact would likely be short-lived.”

Past presidential elections have little to no correlation with home sales numbers in the US market. If anything, hesitance to buy or sell is still tightly wound around the uncertainty of COVID-19’s spread.